Numbers 2

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Well this was a pretty clear outcome! This brings me to the second number aspect. In the ‘forecast phase’ we notice that explorative thinking was important. Because of the fear of a wrong forecast all analysts where open to exploration, looking for ‘missed cues’, for ‘hidden numbers’, for alternative options. Now the forecast phase is over, we switch immediately to a different mode: now the analysts pick an explanation, the explanation is fixed and will become the new reality. As Tolstoi noticed (and I repeat my quote from Sunday’s blog):


Man’s mind cannot grasp the causes of events in their completeness, but the desire to find those causes is implanted in man’s soul. And without considering the multiplicity and complexity of the conditions any one of which taken separately may seem to be the cause, he snatches at the first approximation to a cause that seems to him intelligible and says: “This is the cause!”

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