Cognitive Edge News
Cognitive Edge Guest Blog
Pierpaolo Andriani is one of the up and coming stars of academia's contribution to our understanding of complex systems. He hosted a recent gathering of major figures at Durham University and is an active networker, building connections between the academic work and practice. He has been linked to Cognitive Edge since our foundation, and before that to the Cynefin Centre.
5 April 2008
Gaussianitis: a subtle (and nearly) universal disease
Gaussianitis: compulsive disorder characterised by a subject’s compulsive use of ‘Normal’ statistics in order to get away with the complexity and ambiguity of life
How does Gaussianitis work? Let me give you a couple of examples
The interview with Nick Clegg (the LibDem leader) in GQ Magazine has stimulated a flurry of articles on sexual partner number. Is 30 normal for a 40 year old man? Should I worry if my Casanova index is stuck at 5? Is my Don Giovanni parameter abnormal if I am at 100? Well, what does it mean to be normal in sexual life anyway? Now, this is an interesting question!
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3 April 2008
On average, averages are the exception not the rule
In a nice article on the pitfalls of statistics published today on KnowledgeWharton (The Use -- and Misuse -- of Statistics: How and Why Numbers Are So Easily Manipulated - http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article.cfm?articleid=1928) there is an interesting discussion on statistics and how tricky it actually is. Nice, but it doesn’t go far enough.
Continue reading "On average, averages are the exception not the rule" »
30 March 2008
microprojectors: the poverty of predictions!
On the New York Times (March 30) there is an interesting article on micro-projectors
“The (micro)projectors may be particularly useful for business presentations — for example, when road warriors need to show a product video to small groups. No coordination would be needed to arrange for a screen. Instead, a patch of wall within a cubicle or restaurant could serve for an impromptu presentation. Carolina Milanesi, a research director in London for Gartner, the research firm, says she thinks the microprojectors are most likely to appeal to business travellers who, for example, could use them to beam PowerPoint shows from their smartphones”
And: “Insight Media forecasts a substantial and fast-growing market. “We anticipate total sales of more than $2.5 billion by 2012 for the companion models,” Mr. Brennesholtz said, and $1 billion in revenue for projector modules that are integrated into cellphones and other devices”.
What is the problem with this prediction? Simple, it ignores exaptation and more generally how new applications emerge.
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27 March 2008
What do feathers and microwave ovens have in common?
Nearly all biological traits and many products for particular markets and functions, began life as something different. Feathers were selected for thermal insulation, microwave ovens started life as radar magnetrons and gin&tonic was a concoction to mask the unacceptable quinine taste to British troups in India. The analysis of history of technology and biological evolutions shows that at the root of any adaptive trajectory it is usual for a structure to have been subverted – perverted –from a different function (Gould and Vrba called it “exaptation”). I did a quick review of 19th century innovations and found that about 30% (the real number is likely to be higher) of innovations have an exaptational origin.
Generally exaptation has been regarded as contingent, serendipitous. But, if, as we think, there are regularities, if not rules, then the question becomes: can we exploit these regularities to improve innovation?
Continue reading "What do feathers and microwave ovens have in common?" »
